Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 47

The Qing dynasty almost relinquished its ruling power at the county level to the local gentry. While it was true that clerks and officials held sway in the localities, they were also a force used by the court to restrain the local gentry. It was precisely because these people knew the locals well that they could use the authority of the court to confront the gentry and thus intimidate the villagers.

Conversely, while officials dispatched by the imperial court to local areas needed the cooperation of the local gentry to govern, they could also use the power of these clerks and officials to punish the gentry if they did not cooperate, thus maintaining the authority of the imperial court.

But now, the police station and the militia bureau have become subordinate to the gentry. What can the officials appointed by the imperial court manage? They have no soldiers, no courage, no money, and no understanding of the local area. If they have a conflict with the local gentry, they will immediately become isolated and become masters who can only make decisions within the county government. Outside the county government, it is the gentry's world.

However, the establishment of the new school caused problems within the gentry. What is the gentry? Anyone who is a scholar can be called a scholar, but only those whose family members hold official positions or who have retired from officialdom are called gentry.

The interests of scholars and gentry were both aligned and distinct. Scholars aspired to become gentry but opposed gentry blocking their path to advancement. Gentry, on the other hand, while powerful and influential, could not overly oppress scholars, as scholars were the gentry's reserve force. Therefore, the number of scholars was inevitably greater than that of gentry. If this aroused public anger, the court would inevitably side with the scholars.

However, given the current situation, it is clear that only those who study modern learning will be called scholars in the future, while those who remain in the countryside and are unable to go to the city to study will only be called intellectuals.

The reason why scholars were able to stand up to the gentry was twofold: first, they were future officials, and second, they did not leave their hometowns. The former allowed scholars to speak directly with county officials, while the latter allowed them to become the spokespersons of their hometowns.

But now, not only are the scholars far removed from their hometowns, but their futures are also in the hands of the gentry who act as school board members. If they anger the gentry, their studies will have to be interrupted. Therefore, the so-called scholars no longer exist; all that remains are students buried in their studies. Although these students are not without enthusiasm, they are far removed from the countryside and know nothing of the hardships of the rural areas. How can they speak up for the countryside?

In this way, the gentry, without the deterrence of the imperial court above and the restraint of the scholars below, inevitably saw their power rise greatly. The result of this rise in gentry power was the emergence of powerful gentry. What are powerful gentry? When Zeng Guofan organized local militias to suppress peasant uprisings for the imperial court, he held the power of life and death in the localities, practically a local emperor. People in Hunan called him Zeng the Head-Shaver, and no one could restrain him. This is what is meant by powerful gentry.

The powerful gentry are inherently reactionary because the violence they wield is used to protect their land and property rather than to safeguard the interests of the local people. Under such a mindset, the powerful gentry will inevitably suppress progressive forces in the countryside and stifle local criticism, ultimately forming a reactionary force that relies on private armed forces to rule the countryside.

This means that in the cities our main adversary was the imperial court, but in the countryside and county towns, our main adversary shifted from the imperial court to the local gentry. If we allow these gentry to control local security, the economy, and education, we will lose the support of the people in the countryside, because the people cannot follow an organization that cannot protect them. This is also the reason why the Qing Dynasty was destined to fail…”

All the committee members nodded in agreement with Tian Junyi's words, and Zhang Taiyan clapped his hands in praise, saying, "That is indeed the truth. If no scholars can emerge from the countryside, then what is there to fear from the rampant gentry? The court has abandoned the countryside, and we cannot abandon it just like that."

Other committee members also said that the Labour Party should assist in establishing rural primary schools and then take control of the villages. They also have the conditions to do so. As a large-scale production and commercial organization, the production-marketing cooperative can not only mobilize local manpower but also a large amount of resources. Establishing rural primary schools under the name of the cooperative is not a difficult problem.

After listening to the speeches of the committee members, Tian Junyi continued, "I believe the comrades' opinions are correct. Since the imperial court has lost control over the countryside, we can take it over. How? Simply by vying for local economic power, public security power, and educational power, we can achieve the Party's leadership over the countryside."

Local economic power is essentially control over land and agricultural output. But ultimately, it's about organizing production and transforming as much labor as possible from individual farmers into workers in large-scale socialized production.

Why make this shift? Because only workers in large-scale socialized production care about the future of the nation and its people. Individual farmers only care about their wives, children, and their few acres of land; they are self-sufficient small-scale farmers, and therefore neither want help from outsiders nor help outsiders. We cannot expect these small farmers to stand up and defend the interests of the nation and the working class, unless foreigners have already invaded their doorstep.

Only when they become part of the entire socialized mass production will the interests of the nation and the working class overlap with their own interests. If the interests of the nation and the working class are harmed, their personal interests will also be harmed. Only then will they resolutely stand up to defend the interests of the nation and their class, instead of standing by indifferently.

If we want to transform small farmers into part of large-scale socialized production, we need to further develop the production-supply-marketing cooperative system. In rural areas today, small farmers are at a disadvantage in terms of labor, agricultural tools, livestock, fertilizer, and land scale. In the past, their production and operation barely made ends meet, but now they rely on debt to survive. As long as there is any natural disaster or man-made calamity, these small farmers will fall into bankruptcy.

Why are our production-supply-marketing cooperatives welcomed by farmers but resented by landlords? Because these cooperatives disrupt the usurious agricultural production chain where landlords lent money to farmers at exorbitant interest rates, a cycle that farmers could never fully repay. This cycle begins with farmers borrowing from landlords to overcome a crisis and ends with them losing all their land and property.

In the past, the imperial court suppressed usury in rural areas to maintain stability. However, after the great powers opened China's doors to the world, the court's control over the gentry weakened, and exorbitant taxes and levies increased, naturally leading to a rise in the number of peasants trapped in usury. In Western terms, the introduction of Western capitalism led to the bankruptcy of China's small-scale peasant economy, resulting in a large concentration of land in the hands of landlords.

The most crucial issue here is that agricultural production under Western capitalism is more efficient. For example, in the past, women in rural areas made a living by spinning and weaving. However, now, the traditional yarn and cloth in rural areas have almost lost their market, except for their own use, because imported yarn and cloth are cheaper. Rural areas in the Jiangnan region can still maintain a part of the traditional cloth market by directly buying imported yarn and weaving cloth. However, the handicraft industry in inland rural areas has almost gone bankrupt because the transportation costs and likin (a tax) are too high. It is not cost-effective for inland rural areas to buy imported yarn and weave cloth.

The traditional farming system, with men tilling the fields and women weaving, was fundamental to the small-scale peasant economy. When women lost their means of supplementing household income through weaving, the already burdened small farmers were pushed to the brink of bankruptcy. Therefore, joining production-sales cooperatives became a hope for these small farmers to save themselves.

So, can production-sales cooperatives save small farmers? In my opinion, they definitely can't, because maintaining the old small-scale farming economy is impossible for China, which is preparing to enter the industrial age. An industrial China needs sufficient and low-cost agricultural raw materials, as well as a prosperous rural area that can absorb industrial products. This requires the concentration of land for management.

Of course, our land centralization is not like that of the landlord class, who concentrated all the land in their own hands for personal gain. Our demand for land centralization is for better agricultural management, so that the output of the same land can feed more people. Landlords, however, after centralizing land, will only continuously abandon it, then drive up grain prices to acquire more land. Ultimately, only the landlord class will live comfortably, while everyone else will become slaves to the landlords.

The most important role of production-sales cooperatives is to pave the way for collective production, collective land ownership, and state-owned farms and land ownership, educating farmers on collective production and management, and making them supporters of the collective and public economy. Simply put, it is about transforming them from small farmers into agricultural workers.

Therefore, the primary task of production-sales cooperatives is not to generate profits, but to organize rural laborers to participate in socialized production. For example, we provide cotton yarn to the cooperatives, which then organize women to produce cloth in exchange for the yarn. We promoted this practice in some areas last year, and the results were quite good.

This year, I believe we should further strengthen this work, organizing more rural women into production, especially by selling hand-operated looms and iron-wheeled looms to various production cooperatives on credit. Chong'an, what are the current selling prices of hand-operated looms and iron-wheeled looms? What are their costs?

Xie Zuantai replied without hesitation: "The market price is 4 liang for a hand-pulled machine and 24 liang for a wheeled machine. The cooperative's selling price is reduced by 10% for each. However, for small farmers, the hand-pulled machine is still too expensive, and the wheeled machine is even more difficult to sell. The latter can only be sold to the cooperative, not to individuals, and the quantity is still not large."

However, the iron wheel loom can spin a standard piece of cloth that is 40 yards long, 36 inches wide, and weighs 15 pounds. One piece of cloth is worth 4 to 4.2 taels in the market. Each piece of cloth can earn about 0.3 taels. A skilled worker can spin more than 200 pieces a year.

In other words, as long as enough cotton yarn can be supplied and the woven fabric meets the standards, the cost of the machine can be recouped within a year. Moreover, the iron wheel loom can be converted into an electric loom by installing a motor and other accessories, making it more suitable for future upgrades.

My suggestion is that for remote areas, the cost of hand-pulled looms should be waived if small farmers provide 100 bolts of homespun cloth per year. For rural areas and suburbs with better transportation, a campaign should be launched to exchange cloth for looms. This would also stimulate the production of wheeled looms, thereby further reducing their cost…”

Chapter 161 The Third Meeting of the Labour Party

Tian Junyi supported Xie Zuantai's proposal and said: "Industrialization, according to Comrade Lin Feng, is about concentration and planning. It is about concentrating resources, land, and power, and then formulating plans to implement production and distribution, thereby maximizing the integration of resources and labor. That is industrialization."

With our current production-sales cooperatives, we can only achieve partial centralization. Why? Because the land is not in our hands. As long as the land remains in private hands, we cannot say that we have completed the centralization of resources.

Therefore, our next step is to expand agricultural cooperatives while also promoting their development towards collective ownership. Only under collective ownership can each cooperative member truly be guaranteed a livelihood, and only then can we re-plan the land and use it more efficiently.

Besides guiding farmers to voluntarily participate in collective cooperatives, another key focus is how to acquire land from landlords. In Hubei, 30-40% of the land is in the hands of landlords. What these landlords are pursuing is not the development of the land economy, but how to take advantage of famine years to seize the land held by farmers.

For landlords, famine years are the real harvest years, while good years are just ordinary years. This is because their profits come from land rent. In good years, grain cannot be sold at a good price, and farmers will not borrow money from them at high interest rates. Only in famine years will grain prices skyrocket, and farmers will borrow money from landlords at high interest rates because they cannot survive.

If rural landlords still cared about their reputation and didn't behave too badly, then those who had completely detached themselves from rural life cared less about their local reputation.

They would only intensify their exploitation of the peasants until they had squeezed every last piece of land from them. This had nothing to do with morality; it was simply the fundamental interest of the landlord class. If they didn't do this, then once others consolidated the land, the small landlords would also be seen as prey.

Moreover, after leaving the countryside, every aspect of life in the city requires expenses, which means that their kindness towards farmers comes at the cost of a decline in their own standard of living, something that very few people can do.

Therefore, if we cannot resolve the issue of land ownership, then expanding cooperatives will encounter real trouble, because land ownership will lead to conflicts between cooperatives and landowners. Currently, we do not hold political power and cannot clearly define land ownership through legislation, so we can only resort to commercial means to consolidate land.

For example, guiding these landlords who left their hometowns to exchange their land for industrial stocks or invest in factories. The entire grain processing industry in Hubei Province has an annual processing capacity of less than 5% of the total annual grain output, and most of the processing capacity is still quite backward, consisting of water mills and animal-powered mills; there are hardly any steam mills. As a result, even the best flour in Wuhan is produced abroad, which is simply a joke—an agricultural country exporting raw grains to import processed food.

Of course, this joke isn't funny at all. If we continue to remain indifferent, then Chinese agriculture will become completely subservient to foreign food processing industries. Naturally, this won't affect the lives of the landlords, because they'll simply sell their grain and buy more high-end food for themselves—what difference does that make to their lives?

The real impact is on our country. While our food is exported at low prices, our people suffer from hunger. The British did this countless times in India; there are at least three documented famines where British grain shipments during years exacerbated the situation. The countless bones on the plains of Mumbai—I don't want to see that happen in China…”

When Tian Junyi talked about the land issue, he went into great detail because at least half of the committee members came from landlord families, including himself. There were also many landlords among the party members below him. Only at this time did he understand why Lin Xinyi had been emphasizing the purity of the party and the need to increase the proportion of worker party members in the Labor Party, because only worker party members would support land reform and industrialization without any reservations.

Committee members including Zhang Taiyan also noticed Tian Junyi's caution. After thinking for a moment, Zhang Taiyan interrupted Tian Junyi and said, "Junyi, we all understand the importance of land reform. We have also studied some Marxist theories before. Although we have not yet been able to fully translate these works, we believe that expropriating the landlord class from the land is the right thing to do. Otherwise, China cannot move forward and establish a republic belonging to the people. So, you don't need to be so cautious. Just speak your mind."

Tian Junyi glanced at the committee members, who all nodded slightly in greeting. He then continued, "Let me put it simply. The British relied on expanding their overseas colonies, sending their surplus agricultural population to the colonies and cities, ultimately eliminating the small-scale peasant economy in Britain and transforming landlords into farm owners. This experience is of little reference value to other countries, except for sparsely populated countries like the United States, Brazil, and Argentina."

Next are the experiences of France, Germany, and Russia. The methods these three countries used to eliminate small-scale peasant economies offer some lessons for us. The French used the massacres of feudal nobles during the French Revolution to strip aristocratic landowners of their land ownership. Although there were some setbacks, they ultimately established a land system based on self-sufficient farmers. Later, the military production brought about by the Napoleonic Wars disrupted the self-sufficient small-scale peasant economy in the countryside, but many remnants of the small-scale peasant economy still remained.

Both Germany and Russia adopted a system of buying back land from landlords, creating a group of independent farmers and sending another group of landless peasants to factories, thus forming a cycle between industry and agriculture and breaking down their small-scale peasant economies. However, Russia retained more feudal elements, so Russian agriculture remained under the control of landlords rather than independent farmers. Germany fared slightly better than Russia, but German landowners could not force peasants to cultivate the land for them like Russian landowners did; German landowner manors were closer to a farm system.

Looking at the land reforms implemented in the above-mentioned countries, capitalist land reforms can be roughly divided into three categories. One type completely deprived farmers of their land, implementing a complete landlord land ownership system, and then transformed it into capitalist farm production. Landlords naturally became agricultural capitalists. This is the British model. The British had the advantage of being pioneers in the colonial era; no other country besides Britain has completed such a land reform.

Secondly, there was the French-style land reform. It should be said that the French land reform was quite thorough, given that most of the aristocratic landowners were wiped out during the French Revolution. This meant that the subsequent restoration of feudalism in France could only recognize the land ownership of French yeoman farmers. The lives of these yeoman farmers were similar to an upgraded version of small-scale farming; aside from shifting from producing for their own needs to producing for market demands, the French countryside remained largely unchanged. This was the most farmer-friendly reform, as it completely stood on the farmers' side and protected their interests.

Secondly, there were the land reforms in Germany and Russia, which were essentially a compromise between the British and French approaches. They involved confiscating some land from the landowning class, creating a class of independent farmers, and then transforming the countryside into a capitalist production system…

According to Comrade Lin Feng's propositions, neither the French-style land reform nor the Russian and German-style land reforms should be copied. Firstly, the French-style land reform, while beneficial to peasants, was not beneficial to the working class. French yeoman farmers enjoyed better living conditions than the urban proletariat, but lacked upward mobility. Therefore, to ensure their descendants did not fall into lower social classes, French yeoman farmers opted for birth control to maintain land ownership concentration.

This choice by French independent farmers was advantageous to themselves, as they preserved their land from being inherited and divided by their descendants. However, it was detrimental to France, which has the lowest population growth rate in Europe, with an annual population increase of only one-fifth that of its neighbor Germany.

For China, population is the most important resource. Without a sufficient population base, China would have long been partitioned by foreign powers like the Ottoman Empire. Therefore, the French model is not viable; it would be a path to national subjugation.

As for the paths taken by Russia and Germany, a careful study will reveal that this eclectic land reform did not actually transform the countryside or adapt it to industrialized production.

Germany sacrificed the pace of its own industrial expansion to protect the interests of the Junker landowners, while Russian landowners became the largest comprador class. Russian landowners linked Russian agriculture with the industries of Germany and Britain, but abandoned their own peasants and industries. The current Russian landowners represent neither the interests of the peasantry nor the interests of the Russian bourgeoisie, so a civil war or revolution is inevitable in Russia sooner or later.

Therefore, China's land reform could only follow a path that benefited industrialization rather than peasants. This path was collectivization and public ownership. As a feudal agricultural country oppressed by both foreign powers and the Manchus, my country simply could not afford to redeem the land held by landlords. Even if it had the funds, it should not have done so, because this would have created an unprecedentedly powerful bourgeoisie.

Therefore, the general outline of the land reform we are promoting is: after seizing power, forcibly deprive the landlord class of their land ownership, and then establish a collective economy and a public economy, thereby transforming China into a socialist country with a collective economy and a public economy as its mainstays. Before seizing power, guiding some landlords to shift from agriculture to industrial production, dividing the power of the landlord class, and increasing the power of the bourgeoisie and the proletariat is a temporary transitional approach.

After a brief period of whispering among the committee members, Yang Quyun, Xie Zuantai, Zhang Taiyan, Li Binghuan, Cheng Jiacheng, and others raised their hands one by one, indicating to Tian Junyi, "I agree." "Me too." "And me..."

The consensus reached among the Central Committee members on the land reform line was a great relief for Tian Junyi. To ensure the line could be passed, he had discussed the land reform ideas with everyone repeatedly over the past year, and today it finally came to fruition.

Chapter 162 The Fourth Meeting of the Labour Party

After the most important land reform route was passed, the next topic became much easier. Tian Junyi quickly said: "Expanding production-sales cooperatives and implementing the transitional land reform route, I think the main point is to focus on one point: accelerate the establishment of the current industrial zone. First, complete the construction of cotton yarn mills and flour mills, and then lease these factories out."

As long as there is profit to be made, those landlords who leave the countryside will certainly mortgage their land to banks to lease these factories. For us, regaining the domestic cotton yarn and flour market also requires more capital injection into these industries.

Since 1897, our imports of foreign yarn have remained around 400 million dan (a unit of weight), equivalent to an annual outflow of over 8000 million taels (another unit of weight). For an agricultural country like China, this level of capital outflow would quickly drain domestic capital, ultimately turning us into slaves of the bankers of the great powers.

Yang Quyun nodded in agreement, saying, "Indeed, according to some data we found from the customs, after these powers took control of the customs, they also seized the customs data. If we hadn't started with the Germans, we wouldn't have been able to get this data. In the ten years from 1890 to 1900, a total of more than 7700 million taels of gold flowed out of us. According to the international gold-silver ratio of 1 to 32, that's 24 billion taels of silver, which is equivalent to 2.4 million taels per year."

While the Qing Dynasty did indeed profit from foreign trade in its early years through silk, tea, and porcelain, the influx of silver in the early stages was not unlimited. Therefore, without balancing import and export trade, domestic gold and silver reserves would be depleted. If our currency lost its gold and silver backing, who in the international market would still recognize it as money?

Then we'll have no choice but to sell our grain at low prices and buy their manufactured goods at high prices. Isn't that exactly what the British did to the Indians? The powerful elites at the top don't care about the lives of the common people; they only care about satisfying their own needs.

Xie Zuantai and Cheng Jiacheng also voiced their agreement. Xie Zuantai went on to say, "According to the surveys we have conducted with the Germans, we have almost all the raw materials needed for industry. In other words, we are more suited to developing industry than Germany, and therefore cannot be compared with the United States. However, due to our backwardness in the machinery manufacturing industry, these industrial raw materials can only be exported for processing."

Therefore, prioritizing the development of the machinery manufacturing industry, enabling our country to produce and process these raw materials domestically, is the most urgent task at present. For example, if we can produce a spinning and weaving machine, a milling machine, or a power generation machine ourselves, then we will not need to import gold and silver.

However, all machine manufacturing requires people, steel, and coal as its foundation. Therefore, cultivating talent and prioritizing the development of heavy industries, primarily steel and coal, is fundamental to entering the industrial age. I believe that allowing private capital to enter consumer production is beneficial to us, as it can both expand the market for machine production and allow us to concentrate resources on heavy industry.

After receiving the support of the committee members, Tian Junyi nodded slightly and continued, "In addition to guiding the landlord class to turn land into industrial capital, we must not give up on winning over the scholars in the countryside. After the court abandoned them, these scholars lost their status as candidates for official positions, and they will inevitably have to find their own way out."

Although most of them were unfamiliar with the new learning, compared to completely illiterate peasants, they at least knew how to read. This meant that our transformation of these intellectuals would add a large number of working-class intellectuals to the Party, which was much faster than starting literacy education for workers and peasants from scratch. Organize these people, make them teachers and accountants in village primary schools and production-sales cooperatives, and select those willing to accept revolutionary ideas…”

At this point, Tian Junyi paused for a moment, then changed his words and said, "We shouldn't directly recruit them into the Party. Instead, we should establish an open organization to accept them, and then select qualified personnel from this organization to join the Party. This organization should accept the Party's leadership, but its ideology can be broader to facilitate open activities. This will also benefit our development of progressive elements in factories and rural areas."

Everyone agreed with the suggestion, and after some discussion, Tian Junyi named the organization the Youth League and decided that Zhang Taiyan would lead it, since Zhang Taiyan was quite famous in the education circles of Huguang.

After discussing the struggle for control over rural scholars, Tian Jun began by addressing the issue of seizing power over public order from local gentry. “The police station is an agency used by the gentry to suppress local strife and handle various miscellaneous affairs. We can send some people to infiltrate it, but it would be difficult to control the police station throughout the province. As a violent agency that directly deals with the people, the relationship between the police and the people is naturally adversarial. Therefore, it is natural for the police to gravitate towards power. Unless we seize power, the police force cannot be completely at our disposal.”

Of course, controlling one or two key police stations is still an option, such as the police stations in our most important cities of Hanyang, Hankou, and Wuchang. Without control of these three police stations, we cannot suppress the power of the gentry and secret societies, and we cannot guarantee social order. On the issue of maintaining social order, capitalists, foreign powers, and we all share a common need. Baochu, you are in charge of contacting the various police stations and placing personnel there.”

Like Tian Junyi, Wang Chuzhen was from Cili. He also came from the Self-Reliance Army. After the Self-Reliance Army failed to rise up, he joined the Labor Party with his cousin Li Binghuan and was responsible for liaising with the New Army. He quickly agreed to this new task.

Tian Junyi then turned his gaze to his friend Li Binghuan and asked, "Hucun, in building our own armed forces, weapons and ammunition are the key. How is your work at the Hanyang Arsenal going?"

Li Binghuan replied confidently, "We have complete control over the production matters. Those officials only care about whether their kickbacks are paid in full, and they only care about the quantity of weapons production. As long as we send the kickbacks on time, they will not interfere with the production matters."

Tian Junyi then asked, "When will the new gun production line start production? How many guns will be counted as unplanned production?"

Li Binghuan said, "The old production line we purchased from Mauser through Krupp's introduction this time has actually only been used for a few years and is almost brand new. We had a trial run last month and there were no major problems. The production line will officially start production in three days."

In terms of production capacity, it is estimated that 50 rifles, 50 bayonets, 25,000 bullets, and 75 kilograms of smokeless powder can be produced per day. However, with sufficient raw materials and a three-shift system, production capacity can be at least doubled.

As for the original rifle production line, it is currently being upgraded, firstly to increase production capacity, and secondly to standardize rifle caliber. The current bullet production line uses 6.5mm ammunition, while the previous one used 7.92mm. After the upgrade, the total daily production capacity of rifles will be approximately 150, or 4500 rifles per month, enough to equip one and a half regiments. At least 1500 rifles will be produced outside the planned production each month.

In addition, we also obtained grenade and landmine production technology from the Germans. This was not part of the production plan; we could produce it as long as we had the raw materials.

Tian Jun nodded and said, "I will suggest to the Governor's Office that weapons be procured centrally for the Militia Bureau, and then the trade unions and farmers' associations be armed in the name of the Militia Bureau..."

After entering 1904, Ozaki Yukio submitted his resignation to Ito Sukeyuki. His only reason for resigning was his dissatisfaction with Ito for bypassing him to conclude the Japan-US Friendship Agreement. This was because Ito had undermined the formation of the Rim of the Pacific Conference, which Ozaki had promoted, and had also violated the authority of the Foreign Minister.

Although Ito Sukeyuki tried to persuade him to stay, he ultimately failed to change Ozaki Yukio's mind. After Ozaki resigned, at the suggestion of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of the Army, Komura Jutaro, the former minister to Russia, was appointed as the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Upon hearing this news, Lin Xinyi knew that it would be difficult for Ito to prevent the conclusion of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. This was because Komura was not only an advocate of the theory of aggression against China, but also an advocate of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. As Foreign Minister, Ozaki Yukio could suppress the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' enthusiasm for the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, because Ozaki advocated enhancing Japan's international status rather than engaging in foreign wars.

However, Komura Jutaro was different. He was a theorist who advocated for the formation of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, under which Japan would expand its continental territory. Komura's theories met the needs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of the Army. One wanted the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, and the other wanted a continental war. Through Komura, the two sides were united.

Meanwhile, after reluctantly accepting the Algeciras Conference, Germany adopted a diplomatic policy of easing tensions in Europe while simultaneously intensifying its preparations for war. At this time, the Japanese Navy's concept of an all-main-gun capital ship, which had been revealed to the German Admiralty more than six months earlier, finally attracted the attention of the Germans.

Previously, the Germans believed that Japan's weak industrial capabilities made it unworthy of discussing warship design with them, so they completely ignored the Japanese Navy's private attempts to exchange German industrial technology.

However, in 1903, Italian designer Cuniberti publicly presented his "Ideal Battleship Design for the Royal Navy," which for the first time articulated the concept of a warship "fully armed with heavy guns." The US Navy also raised similar ideas, which finally attracted the attention of the German Navy, and some people finally unearthed the blueprints sent by the Japanese and began to study them.

After some research, the Germans finally changed their impression of the Japanese Navy and began to make contact with it, exchanging ideas on the construction plan for capital ships with all main guns.

The Germans' delayed response caused the Japanese Navy to lose confidence in its all-main-gun capital ships. Japan's own industrial capacity was insufficient to build such an advanced capital ship, and its orders from Britain were rejected because many technologies were forbidden from being divulged by the Royal Navy. For example, the British would not provide Japan with the Vickers clock used for fire control calculations; without fire control calculations, long-range combat would be a joke.

The Germans' change of attitude finally gave the Japanese navy a glimmer of hope.

Chapter 163 The Footsteps of War

Hayashi Shin-ichi, who was in the final year of his studies in Etajima, was powerless to change the changes taking place in Tokyo. Ito Sukeyuki had already gotten what he wanted, so naturally he would no longer be easily led by the nose by him.

Ozaki Yukio's resignation forced Ito to find a foreign minister who could gain the approval of all parties as soon as possible, otherwise his cabinet would collapse. Under such favorable circumstances, it was obviously impossible for Ito to accept the dissolution of the cabinet. Therefore, accepting the suggestions of the Ministry of the Army and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs became inevitable.

Lin Xinyi, who was pondering these questions, was suddenly awakened. Inoue Tsuyomatsu asked him curiously, "What did you see in the newspaper that you were so engrossed in?"

Lin Xinyi was taken aback, put down the newspaper in his hand and said, "Oh, Russia's Finance Minister Witte has been dismissed. I think the bells of war have begun to toll."

"War? You mean the Russo-Japanese War? But didn't our government keep trying to quell the rumors that Japan and Russia were going to go to war? Why does Witte's resignation mean war?" someone asked Lin Xinyi, puzzled.

After looking at the club members in the activity room, Lin Xinyi stretched and said, "Witt is the leader of a faction that advocates easing relations with the East and focuses on internal reforms in Russia. When he is still in his position, Russia will not take the initiative to start a war in the Far East, because he needs to concentrate his efforts on internal reforms in Russia."

His downfall signified one thing: the reformists in Russia had failed, and the aristocratic landowners had won. However, the internal contradictions within Russia did not disappear with Witte's departure. The current internal contradictions in Russia are actually similar to those in the United States during the Civil War. Southern plantation owners and British industrialists were closely linked; they exported cotton to Britain and imported manufactured goods, leaving Northern factory owners with nothing. Although both sides were in the same country, their interests were diametrically opposed.

The same is true of the problems in Russia today. Russian nobles and landowners exported large quantities of Russian grain to Western Europe, but Russia suffered from famine for several years in a row. Prices in cities soared, while factories had to reduce production capacity due to a lack of raw materials and markets. The working class lost a lot of jobs, and farmers could not afford to buy a few pairs of boots even after working hard all year.

To solve this problem, either a reform was needed to return land to the peasants, giving them surplus money to spend, which would increase factory operating rates and allow workers to find jobs and support themselves; or a war was needed to eliminate the surplus population. It seems the Russians chose the latter.

Inoue seemed lost in thought, while the others exchanged bewildered glances. They were unsure whether Lin Xinyi was referring to Russia or Japan, since rural Japan was currently in a state of limbo.

Before leaving office, Yamagata passed a tax increase bill, which greatly increased the burden on farmers. If it weren't for Ito's Tokyo development plan after he came to power, which provided jobs for young people from rural areas to make a living, Japan would probably be full of volcanoes now.

The quick-witted Koichi Shiozawa was the first to speak up and change the subject, saying, "Although Europe has calmed down now, can Russia really turn its attention to the Far East? Won't the Germans take advantage of this opportunity to do something?"

Hori Teikichi disagreed, saying, "The Germans are too cautious, otherwise they wouldn't have made concessions on the Morocco issue. If Russia wants Germany to take advantage of the situation, it would have to deploy more than half of its troops in the Far East. But do the Russians really think they need more than half of their troops to deal with Japan? If the Russians had that understanding, they wouldn't be so unyielding on the Korean issue."

Everyone nodded slightly in agreement with Hori Teikichi's assessment. Ever since Japan chose to show weakness during the Northern Qing Incident, Russia had consistently adopted a hardline stance on the Manchurian and Korean issues, seemingly indicating that it wanted both Manchuria and Korea. This arrogant attitude of the Russians had certainly angered Japan and China, and even Britain could no longer pretend to be neutral.

As members of the Naval Research Society, they also had access to information that ordinary officers could not obtain. For example, during Kato Takaaki's tenure as Foreign Minister, he consistently attempted to conclude an alliance between Japan and Britain. The British maintained a neutral stance on the requests from Japanese diplomats, stating that if an alliance were to be concluded, it should not be directed against any specific country, but rather solely for maintaining the status quo in East Asia and overall peace. In other words, Britain even avoided advocating for Japan's rights in Korea, which Japan desperately wanted.

However, after Japan backed down and indicated that it had no intention of fighting a war with Russia in the Far East, Britain reneged on its promise. British diplomats began to gradually increase their leverage, from acknowledging Japan's special interests in Korea to acknowledging that Japan could take appropriate actions to protect its interests in Korea. It can be said that the British began to retreat in large strides.

The members of the Naval Research Society finally began to move away from a Japanese perspective on the Russo-Japanese issue and were able to try to view the impact of changes in Russo-Japanese relations on the European situation from a global perspective. By this time, for the core members of the Naval Research Society, the Russo-Japanese War was first and foremost a political and diplomatic issue, and only secondarily a matter of combat.

Matsushita Kaoru hesitated before saying, "Then, will Germany restore the Three Emperors' Alliance with Russia and Austria? Germany needs peace in the East, and Russia needs peace in the West. Wouldn't they form an alliance to relieve each other of their worries? If so, we might have to deal with a Russia that is going all out."

Takano Isoroku categorically denied it, saying, "Such a possibility is impossible. The French would not agree to an alliance between Germany and Russia, nor would Austria-Hungary, and Britain would certainly not accept it. If Germany and Russia were to form an alliance, it would inevitably bring about a complete change in the European situation. Russia would not only be unable to eliminate its worries about the rear, but would also have to focus more of its energy on Europe. Shin-yi, what do you think?"

After pondering for a few seconds, Lin Xinyi said, "William II and Nicholas II are actually the same kind of people. They are cautious about their lives when it comes to great things, but they are willing to risk their lives for small gains. If Wilhelm II really wants to focus all his efforts on developing the Middle East, then he should first resolve the issues of Alsace and Lorraine with France. If Nicholas II really wants Manchuria, he should first reach a compromise with our country on the Korean issue."

However, both of them adopted an uncompromising stance, effectively isolating themselves. How could such two people possibly reach an agreement that benefits the other? Unless Germany and Russia are both surrounded by a powerful alliance, and exist in a situation where not forming an alliance means national annihilation, they have absolutely no chance of reaching an agreement.

Everyone pondered Hayashi Nobuyoshi's assessment. Soon, Hori Teikichi smiled and said, "Let Prime Minister Ito and the elders worry about such matters. Let's return to our discussion about colonialism. Nobuyoshi, it's your turn to speak..."

At this time, Ito Sukeyuki was indeed troubled by Russia's movements. The newly appointed Foreign Minister, Komura Jutaro, was a man with a very strong sense of self-assertion. He completely disagreed with Ito Hirobumi's advocacy of a policy of forbearance and diplomacy. As for Ozaki's promotion of Japan's independent diplomacy, it had not yielded any results in a short period of time, so he simply ignored it.