Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 45

However, Togo's remarks greatly displeased the generals of Yamamoto's faction. This proposal was clearly the Ministry of the Navy's proposal, but Togo's nonsense turned it into a suggestion from the Naval General Staff. Wasn't this stealing the Ministry of the Navy's proposal right in front of them? "This is intolerable!" This probably refers to the current situation.

Saito glanced at Minister Yamamoto's expression out of the corner of his eye, and immediately confronted Togo, saying, "Isn't what you're saying exactly what Minister Yamamoto means? How can you claim it as your opinion? You're being far too arrogant!"

Looking at the scene in the office, Togo felt reassured. Apart from the dissatisfaction of the generals in Yamamoto's faction, the others clearly accepted his views. Therefore, he replied calmly, "I still oppose Minister Yamamoto's proposal. I oppose the Navy handing over the administration of Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago to the Army, but I also disagree with the Navy directly governing these areas. This is because the Navy lacks the funds and manpower, and it cannot directly engage in conflict with Britain and the United States in these areas. Although the southward expansion strategy belongs to Japan, it is not a strategy that Japan can accomplish alone."

Togo's words not only puzzled everyone else, but even Kawahara looked at him blankly. Togo hadn't mentioned any specific implementation plan for the southward expansion strategy before the meeting began. Since the signing of the Japan-US Friendship Agreement, the entire navy had been working diligently on a concrete implementation plan for the southward expansion strategy, but so far there was no reliable plan. This was because Japan's national strength was far inferior to that of Britain and the United States. Although Japan had cleverly forced the Americans to make concessions, the situation in Southeast Asia was still dominated by Western colonial powers.

To put it bluntly, the Americans were originally sent to Southeast Asia by the British to prevent Japan from invading the Spanish Philippines after occupying Taiwan. The Japanese were not unaware of this, but due to the disparity in strength between themselves and the Western powers, they could only acquiesce. This time, the United States has offered a passage, which the British will not gladly accept. However, Britain is currently entangled in European affairs and has to remain silent about the friendly agreement reached between Japan and the United States. On the other hand, the British colony of Australia is extremely dissatisfied with the Japan-US friendship agreement, believing it to be a "Yellow Peril" invading Southeast Asia and threatening the interests of white people there.

Although the Australian authorities did not represent London, Australia was, after all, part of the British Empire. Therefore, the Australians' statements still caused tension in Japan, which feared angering the current maritime superpower. Because of this concern, although the navy knew an opportunity to move south had arisen, it could not produce a concrete plan for such an advance. Any plan would inevitably involve conflict with the British, making it difficult for the Japanese navy to formulate a strategy.

Chapter 153 Naval Officers' Meeting II

Even Yamamoto Gonnohyōe couldn't hold back this time and bluntly asked, "What exactly do you want to say? There's no need to be so coy, just say it outright."

Dongxiang Zhenglu didn't dare to be too presumptuous, but the feeling of looking down on everyone from a high position was indeed quite good. Now he understood why Lin Xinyi would sometimes keep things mysterious. It shouldn't be to hide his shortcomings, but to see how helpless others looked. It did give him a sense of satisfaction from having everything under control.

Although he thought this to himself, Dongxiang still said meticulously, "The Dutch are backed by the British, that's beyond doubt. Although Southeast Asia is now divided up by Britain, the United States, the Netherlands, Germany, and France, the German and French colonies are actually on the periphery of Southeast Asia, and the Philippine Islands occupied by the Americans are not in the core of the Southeast Asian islands either."

The core of the islands in Southeast Asia lies in the Malay Peninsula, Sumatra, Java, and Kalimantan. To be more specific, the key to controlling the islands lies in the Strait of Malacca and the Sunda Strait, followed by the Lombok Strait, the Java Strait, the Makassar Strait, and the Maluku Strait. Once these straits are controlled, the shipping routes in Southeast Asia are also controlled.

So who controls these straits now? The British and the Dutch. Except for the Singapore Strait, the other straits are in Dutch control. Why would the British allow the Dutch to control these straits? There's only one reason: if the British were to attack the Dutch, then the United States, Germany, and France would have a reason to divide up the Dutch East Indies.

However, after Britain supported the Dutch rule over the islands in Southeast Asia, we, like other powers, could only watch helplessly as the Dutch strengthened their control over the islands in order to avoid a direct conflict with Britain.

Therefore, the core of the southward expansion strategy was that we needed to unite with other powers to counter British actions in Southeast Asia, but we should not directly confront the British. Because if we directly confronted the British, we would only become cannon fodder used by other powers to counter British influence in Southeast Asia; we would shed blood and sacrifice ourselves, while other powers might compromise with Britain and gain benefits.

Therefore, we also need a proxy to counter the Dutch, who represent British power. When this proxy is locked in a fierce battle with the Dutch, and the British are forced to intervene directly, then we can unite with other powers to negotiate with Britain. This will be our opportunity to divide the Dutch East Indies.

Saito Minoru couldn't help but ask, "Are you sure the other powers will stand with us against the British? France, Germany, the United States, and us—we're not even in the same camp."

Togo Masamichi looked at him and asked in return, "So what good would it do them to side with the British? The French have disputes with the British over the Indochina Peninsula, and Germany's Pacific colonies are just things the British have abandoned. The Americans may oppose our expansion in Southeast Asia, but they will not support British power there either, because Britain has too many colonies. So, given the right conditions, they will eventually side with us."

Togo's assessment caused a stir in the meeting room. Some thought it was feasible, while others thought it was a pipe dream. But everyone had the same thought in their minds: it could indeed be considered a feasible plan.

Kataoka Shichiro was also getting impatient. After the discussion in the conference room quieted down a bit, he asked Togo, "So who is your so-called agent? A native of Southeast Asia?"

Togo Langlang replied, “The natives of Southeast Asia should naturally be the main force, but everyone knows that the natives of Southeast Asia cannot unite under one banner, so the British will find us soon. This will still be a direct conflict.”

Therefore, our agents should be Chinese, and only the Chinese can directly confront British pressure and prevent the British from shifting blame onto us.

"Can the Chinese really stand up to British pressure head-on? That's not quite right. They can't even protect their own internal navigation rights, so how can they possibly stand up to British pressure?"

Upon hearing someone raise the same question he had once raised, Togo nodded slightly and said, "What I mean is, it's precisely because China has already surrendered that the British can no longer exert pressure on the Chinese. Unless the British rule China like they ruled India, how can they stop the spontaneous resistance of the Chinese in Southeast Asia and at home? The Boxer Rebellion is the best proof of that."

For Japan, the confrontation between the Chinese and the British, whether in Southeast Asia or within China, presented an opportunity. Britain's focus on the Chinese was weakening its own power; their national strength would eventually crumble, and their global hegemony would be unsustainable. After Britain withdrew from Southeast Asia, would we really fear a small country like the Netherlands?

Seeing everyone starting to discuss the possibility of this plan, Saito Makoto had to speak up and steer the conversation back to the main topic: "What does finding Chinese people as proxies to incite the indigenous people of Southeast Asia to resist Europe and America have to do with the navy's management of Mindanao Island?"

After scanning the room, Togo said, "If we want the natives of Southeast Asia to rise up in rebellion, if we want the Chinese to trust us and mobilize the natives of Southeast Asia to rebel, then we must at least show them a bright future for Southeast Asia."

Mindanao represents such a future. If we can prove that the indigenous people of Southeast Asia can build their own homes, how can they continue to endure oppression by European and American colonizers? Once these colonizers are driven out, they can build their own homes just like the indigenous people of Mindanao, which will inevitably lead these indigenous people to join the resistance movement like moths to a flame.

All we need to do is present them with a bright future. But this is something the army cannot do, because what the army wants is an overseas colony; it hasn't considered how to establish a new order in East Asia, a new order in Southeast Asia, or even a new order in Asia. Just look at the stupid things the army did in Korea, turning a pro-my country Korean people into our adversaries, and you'll know that you can't trust the army to help us complete any southward expansion plan. The army is nothing but a bunch of mindless brutes; how can this country count on them?”

Togo's last sentence resonated deeply with everyone. Although the Navy was also part of the military, the naval officers present felt they were different from the Army. After all, they had grown up receiving complete European aristocratic etiquette, while the Army's bunch of bumpkins might not even know how to properly hold a knife and fork when eating Western food.

Seeing that Togo was gradually gaining control of the situation, and even his own men were beginning to waver, Yamamoto Gonbei gave Saito Minoru a disgruntled look, hoping that his deputy would suppress Togo's momentum.

Saito Makoto was actually beginning to agree with Togo Masamichi's proposal, because he felt it was indeed a feasible approach. It wouldn't require much naval investment; all that was needed was to fan the flames from the sidelines. Even if such a plan failed, there wouldn't be much harm in it. If they were to follow the southward expansion strategy devised by some, it would mean sending a fleet to fight head-on and then gambling that the enemy wouldn't retaliate if they failed. The possibility of that was extremely low. The British, as a global superpower, hadn't earned their status through charity. If it really came to war, how could they expect the British not to turn ruthless?

However, since Minister Yamamoto had to raise the questions himself, he had no choice but to bite the bullet and continue questioning: "It is certainly a good thing to develop Mindanao into a model area for Southeast Asia. However, as you just said, the navy does not have the funds and manpower for this. So who do you plan to let invest in the development of Mindanao? Zaibatsu will not do such a losing business."

Togo remained silent for a few seconds. Togo Masamichi was actually two terms ahead of Saito Minoru and seven years older, but he was promoted to Major General two years later. This is the difference between having connections and not having connections.

Upon seeing Saito Minoru, Togo realized that Hayashi Shin'ichi was right; the feudal lords were indeed corrupt. After organizing his thoughts, he said, "Vice Minister Saito raised a good question. Indeed, the zaibatsu (financial cliques) will not engage in unprofitable business, so letting them oversee the development of Mindanao is like handing the fish to the cat to protect."

However, Vice Minister Saito probably has very little contact with contemporary Japanese society, and he hasn't interacted much with young Japanese people either. Do you know how much a student who didn't graduate from the Tokyo Metropolitan University's law department can earn during their internship if they fail the civil service exam and have to become a lawyer?

Saito Minoru was genuinely taken aback by this absurd question, and it took him a while to reply, "What does this have to do with the development of Mindanao?"

Togo sneered and said, "A university graduate, simply because he didn't graduate from an Imperial University, can't even find a job to support himself. He has to endure the exploitation of the zaibatsu and academic cliques before he can slowly climb the social ladder. That's why more and more young people are now opposing the zaibatsu and their cliques. If we don't give young people a way out, they will sooner or later become the source of social unrest."

The development of Mindanao should focus on providing opportunities for these young people, not on whether conglomerates can make money. As for funding the development of Mindanao, this is the indigenous people building their own homeland; Japan is responsible for providing technical guidance and planning. Why should Japan pay for it? As for the initial investment, that can be handled by Chinese capital from Southeast Asia.

Excluding those who have become naturalized, there are more than 400 million overseas Chinese who retain Chinese citizenship in Southeast Asia. They remit more than US$5700 million back to China every year. However, there is discrimination against Chinese people throughout Southeast Asia. Therefore, as long as we show goodwill to Chinese people, they will inevitably shift their capital to the safer region of Mindanao.

With land and capital secured, our next step is to ensure that truly capable young people go to Southeast Asia, rather than sending troublesome ronin. The achievements of these young Japanese in Southeast Asia will form the foundation of the navy's presence there in the future…”

Chapter 154 Akiyama Masayuki's New Position

Although the navy is more independent and more like a closed society than the army, naval commanders are not completely ignorant of national affairs. The power of the Kuomintang is growing stronger, to the point that Ito Hirobumi is willing to abandon the clan politics in favor of party politics. How could they not know that society is full of dissatisfaction with the clan politics?

These naval officers, having all experienced the aftermath of the Boshin War, naturally knew that discontent among the lower ranks would inevitably lead to social unrest, and the navy was an institution that most sought social stability.

Because the navy is completely unsufficient, unlike the army, which can support a portion of its population by collecting taxes in a region should a nationwide crisis occur. Without a stable social production system to support it, the navy becomes a disposable fleet.

For example, after the Beiyang Fleet was defeated, the turbulent political situation in Qing China meant that even nearly 10 years after the Battle of the Yellow Sea, the Qing navy had not recovered. The threat posed to Japan by a restored Qing navy, which had once worried the navy, vanished. This was a major factor in the navy's final decision to accept Qing-sent students to study at the naval academy.

If the same thing happened to Japan, the fate of the Japanese Navy would be even worse than that of the Chinese Navy. This is because Japan is too small and has too few resources. After losing the naval industrial system that it had spent decades building, it would be almost impossible for Japan to recover. Or even if it did recover, it would be irrelevant to the current generation.

It was with this idea in mind that the upper echelons of the navy were actually disgusted with the politics of the Kuomintang. However, the navy had not taken the lead in politics before. Kabayama Sukenori lost his political future just for speaking the truth, and Saigo Tsugumichi simply stopped speaking out in politics. Therefore, the Kuomintang's attention was mainly on the army, since the Choshu clan was the dominant force in Japanese politics.

But now, the Navy has finally made it through, and Ito has finally become Prime Minister and formed a cabinet. Therefore, the Navy must face the various problems that exist in Japanese society.

Previously, Ito ordered the dismantling of the Genyosha-led ronin organization because these ronin had become a factor of social instability. Although the army used these ronin to suppress civil rights activists and the workers' movement, the navy viewed the Genyosha as an increasingly destabilizing social force that, if left unchecked, would turn around and threaten the military.

However, cracking down on the Genyosha members did not solve the social problems. In other words, the navy's elimination of the Genyosha only weakened the army's power, but also invisibly weakened the forces that suppressed the people's party and the workers' movement. If the navy wanted to suppress these civil rights movements, it had to come up with a solution, otherwise it would have to establish another Genyosha.

Togo Masamichi's proposal this time is indeed a new direction for the naval leadership. Sending dissatisfied young people abroad would certainly reduce the number of protests, wouldn't it? Since these young people have benefited from the navy, they will naturally become its supporters. Under this strategic goal, reducing the interference of the zaibatsu in Mindanao has become a consensus.

Even Yamamoto Gonnohyōe couldn't voice any objections to this plan, because his governing philosophy for Mindanao was essentially the same as the Army's: to turn Mindanao into another Taiwan, a new territory for Japan. The development of Taiwan involved the Army borrowing huge sums from American capitalists and receiving strong support from financial conglomerates. The Navy, however, lacked access to loans from American capitalists and therefore couldn't replicate this approach.

For this reason, Togo suggested establishing an agency to handle the governance of Mindanao, rather than having the Navy directly interfere in its governance, which would bring unpredictable risks to the Navy. This suggestion received unanimous support from the General Officers' Conference. To facilitate this new agency, Togo further suggested that the Naval General Staff establish a strategic task force to plan and guide the development of Mindanao. Although Saito believed that the Ministry of the Navy was more suitable to manage this strategic task force, Togo only said one sentence, and Saito remained silent.

Togo said, "Planning matters have always been the responsibility of the Naval General Staff. Does the Naval General Staff really have to go through the Ministry of the Navy to command this strategic team?"

Saito meant that the Naval General Staff should submit the plan to the Ministry of the Navy for review, and then the Ministry of the Navy would issue the order. Togo simply elevated the Naval General Staff to the level of the Ministry of the Navy. Saito could not openly claim that the Naval General Staff was a subordinate unit of the Ministry of the Navy, so he could not refute Togo's proposal. He had no choice but to relinquish the establishment of the Strategic Task Force. After all, it was the Naval General Staff's idea, not the Ministry of the Navy's. Forcibly taking it over would be unworkable and would certainly be criticized.

Although he was somewhat dissatisfied that Togo had not reported truthfully to him, Togo had indeed rendered meritorious service to the Military General Staff, and Kawahara, as the Chief of Staff, was also a beneficiary. With this in mind, Kawahara only gave Togo a few words of advice, telling him that he must tell him what he was doing in the future, so as not to catch him off guard like in today's meeting.

Although Togo nodded obsequiously, he was inwardly unconvinced. If he had revealed the entire plan before the meeting, how could he have had the chance to make these remarks at today's meeting? Wasn't it Kawahara who sent him out because he felt there was no solution? If it succeeded, it would be credited to the General Staff; if it failed, it would be due to his own incompetence.

After learning about the plan, Ito Sukeyuki greatly appreciated it. It was exactly the kind of plan he needed to stabilize society after eliminating the Genyosha and other ronin organizations. Sending away those intellectuals who had no future would obviously be of great benefit to domestic stability and unity.

With the support of Ito Sukeyuki, the Naval General Staff quickly developed the framework for the strategic corps. Under the strong advocacy of Togo Masamichi, Lieutenant Commander Akiyama Saneyuki, a tactical instructor at the Naval University, was appointed as the head of the strategic corps and was responsible for its formation. Akiyama was quite surprised when he was summoned to the Naval General Staff to receive his appointment. After all, there were many people in the upper echelons of the Navy who did not think highly of him or who only paid attention to his mentor. There was not a single person who wanted him to lead naval strategy.

The president of the Naval University, Toshitsu Sakamoto, who admired him the most, was not considered a decision-maker within the Navy. Although Sakamoto supported his teaching of strategy and tactics separately, he could only provide support in the school curriculum. Sakamoto clearly did not have the influence to get the Navy's high command to conduct strategic research.

Togo Masamichi was quite frank with him, saying, "As the principal of the military academy, I review all the topics discussed at the naval seminar. I think your proposals on the southward expansion strategy are very reasonable, which is why I hope you will organize and lead this strategy class."

After hearing this, Akiyama Saneyuki hesitated for a long time before saying, "Speaking of the southward expansion strategy, the entire framework was actually formulated by the naval seminar. I only made some suggestions on a few issues."

Togo Masamichi agreed, saying, "Yes, I do acknowledge that. To be more precise, it was Lin Xinyi who raised various questions about the southward advance, and the naval seminar constructed the overall framework of the southward advance strategy in the process of answering these questions. If he hadn't yet graduated, I think he would be the most suitable person to lead this strategy class, but right now you are the most suitable person in the navy."

You can confidently form this strategy team without worrying about personnel qualifications or other issues. The strategy team will only report to me from now on. I will wholeheartedly support your work, and the intelligence analysis team will also assist the strategy team in its decision-making…”

Akiyama Saneyuki could not refuse Togo Masamichi's request. In fact, his studies under Mahan focused more on sea control than on how to organize a fleet for combat. Of course, after experiencing the Spanish-American War, his research on specific fleet tactics was no less advanced than others. However, he believed that naval tactics should ultimately serve the naval strategy, and that controlling the seas was the sole objective of the navy.

However, this concept was not yet widespread in the Japanese Navy. The mainstream ideology of the Japanese Navy remained rooted in the age of sail, aiming to gain control of the seas by destroying ships. This approach of gaining control of the seas by destroying ships was actually based on the backward productivity of the agricultural era. In the agricultural era, the production of naval personnel and warships was a long process, and the technological gap between sailing warships was not significant. A ship could be used for decades without becoming technologically obsolete. Therefore, the side with more warships naturally possessed the power to control the seas.

However, in the early 20th century, during the Second Industrial Revolution, it was much easier for industrialized countries to train naval personnel than in the agricultural era. As a result of technological advancements, warships were often replaced by mainstream warships before their lifespan was over.

The Japanese navy destroyed the Beiyang Fleet, and the Chinese navy never recovered. However, if such a naval war broke out between the industrialized European powers, they could restore their naval strength within a few years, and the newly built warships would be of better performance.

As the world's largest industrial producer, the United States has realized the differences in naval power in the industrial age. After all, it hasn't been many years since the United States developed from a weak navy to the large navy it is today.

In the process of building a large navy, the Americans realized that it was clearly impossible to completely control the seas by destroying the fleet of an industrialized nation. Controlling the seas was no longer just the task of the navy alone; it required the joint efforts of the navy, government, industry, and maritime trade to maintain a free navigation system.

Akiyama Saneyuki mainly studied this theory in the United States, but the high command of the Japanese Navy still used him as a tactical staff officer. It was like making a chemistry PhD do a job that a chemistry undergraduate could do. If he did well, it was expected; if he did poorly, it was because his PhD was too superficial. They never thought about what kind of work a chemistry PhD should do to be considered professional.

The Army quickly learned of the Navy's movements. Army Vice Chief of Staff Tamura Isozo, who had just recovered from a serious illness, received the Navy's plan for governing Mindanao and remarked to Chief of Staff Ōyama Iwao and Yamagata Aritomo, "The Navy's actions appear to be in line with their previous principles of benevolence and courtesy, but in reality, they are negating the current colonial system. In other words, the Navy opposes the Army's plan for the military annexation of Korea..."

Chapter 155 The German Dilemma

On January 16, 1904, an important meeting on resolving the Moroccan question was being held in a manor on the outskirts of Algeciras, Spain, a small town near the edge of the Mediterranean Sea and only 9.6 kilometers from the Strait of Gibraltar.

The Moroccan issue appears to be most contentious between France and Germany, but in reality, this land south of the Strait of Gibraltar also holds sway over Spain, Italy, and Britain.

Historically, the Spanish also have claims to this land, as the wars between the Spanish and the Moro have lasted for more than a century or two. However, Spain has declined, and now, like Portugal, it has become an insignificant country in Western Europe. Naturally, the French will not pay attention to Spanish interests in Morocco.

The Spanish initially sought German assistance, but German Foreign Minister Holstein attempted to pressure the French, along with the British, to undermine the Anglo-French agreement. The British did not directly reject the Germans, but subtly hinted to the Spanish that if Spain sided with Germany, Britain would side with France.

The Spanish certainly wouldn't join this confrontation. The British still control the Strait of Gibraltar, and they might just force Spain to stay away from it forever.

Thus, until they reached Algeciras, the Germans believed that Britain had not completely sided with France, because in Holstein's view, the Anglo-Russian conflict outweighed all other conflicts, and that war between Britain and Russia was inevitable. Therefore, it was impossible for Britain and France to reach any real agreement, since France would inevitably have to support Russia to defend its own security.

This meant that Britain needed German support to counter the Franco-Russian alliance. This was how the Germans viewed the world situation, a conclusion firmly believed by figures from Holstein and Bülow to Wilhelm II.

The Germans, already struggling with cognitive impairment, suffered a heavy blow in Algeciras because the Spanish and Italians had reached a compromise with the French, while the British opposed any French concessions to Germany on the Moroccan issue. The British feared that if France ceded a port on the Atlantic side to the Germans, the German fleet would effectively have a naval base near the Strait of Gibraltar, which would clearly threaten the Royal Navy's access to and from the Strait of Gibraltar.

With British support and threats, France could only state that Germany had no special interests in Morocco. Germany was confused by France's tough stance. After the hardline French foreign minister resigned, the Germans believed that France was inevitably going to yield to Germany unless they wanted a war.

However, the fact that the moderate foreign minister was completely disregarding German interests in Morocco meant one thing: France was prepared for war. The Germans began to examine themselves and their diplomacy, and they soon realized that Germany was not actually prepared for war, and the current situation in Europe was quite unfavorable for Germany.

Britain and France reached an agreement. Although Russia still insisted on its interests in the Far East, it focused its attention on Europe. This meant that if Germany launched an attack on France, it might directly wage war against Britain, France, and Russia. The Italians were unreliable, and Austria-Hungary was unlikely to side with Germany, as the war seemed unlikely to be won; the combined strength of Britain, France, and Russia was too formidable.

In another timeline, Russia's defeat to Japan in the Far East caused a stir throughout Europe. The resilience displayed by the Russian army during the Napoleonic era remained vividly in the minds of the entire continent. This ensured that from the end of the Napoleonic Wars until the revolutions of 1848, the name of the European gendarmerie continued to intimidate Western European countries. Even Russia's defeat in the Crimean War did not completely tarnish the reputation of the Russian army. It was only after Russia's defeat in the Russo-Japanese War that Austria-Hungary and Germany began to underestimate Russia's power.

At this moment, however, Russia was still regarded as a powerful land force in Europe, a power that Austria-Hungary could not rival. The German General Staff believed that Germany could not win a war under the combined attack of France and Russia, and with Britain added to the mix, Germany was destined to lose.

Faced with a situation where taking one step forward meant war, Wilhelm II backed down. The Germans gained nothing at the Algeciras Conference; in other words, Germany was humiliated, while Spain and Italy at least received comfort goods.

The conference's outcome infuriated Germany, with many believing the Kaiser had been too weak, failing to secure any compensation from the French despite being in the right. The German military remained silent, aware of the threats posed by Britain, France, and Russia at the conference, and with Germany currently quelling a colonial rebellion in Southwest Africa, it was completely unable to confront these three powers.

However, Wilhelm II was also very dissatisfied with this result. He met with Prime Minister Bilo, Foreign Minister Holstein, and military leaders to find out what was going on and how Germany should untangle the knot of cooperation between Britain, France, and Russia.

Holstein could not admit his misjudgment to Wilhelm II. Germany's foreign policy was now based on the assessment that Britain was in greater conflict with France and Russia and that Britain needed Germany's help. If he were to overturn his judgment now, he would have to step down and apologize.

Adjusting current foreign policy means that all the resources Germany has invested in the past will have been wasted. Can Germany withdraw its support for the Ottoman Empire? And its support for Austria-Hungary? How can Germany guarantee the investments already made in the Ottoman Empire? Will the 3B railway project also be abandoned?

Germany had already invested too many resources in this diplomatic direction, and no one could tolerate these resources becoming sunk costs. Holstein could only say to Wilhelm II: "There is no possibility of reconciliation between Britain and Russia. As long as war breaks out in the Far East, Britain will inevitably have to declare war on Russia for the sake of India's security, just like in the Crimean War."

Of course, our diplomacy should be adjusted. For example, we could invite Russia to rebuild the Three Emperors' League to counter the Anglo-French alliance. If we can eliminate the Russian threat to our country in the east, the British army will at least be unable to hinder us. Then, we will only have to deal with the French. If we can achieve a resounding victory in the Franco-Prussian War, then the Anglo-French agreement will become ineffective.

After a long silence, Wilhelm II asked the military, "If Russia cannot spare the resources, how long will it take us to defeat the French? Can we defeat them before Britain joins the war?"

Chief of the General Staff Alfred von Schlieffen replied to the Emperor expressionlessly: "The French cannot withstand a strong German assault, but only if you loosen the shackles on the army and make it focus solely on victory rather than international law. If you can do that, then we will sign a peace treaty with Britain in Paris."

Bülow and Holstein immediately expressed their opposition. Bülow stated, "Bringing more countries into this war will only make it harder for Germany to end it. The British will certainly use this as an opportunity to build a European Union against Germany. We cannot only consider this war, but also the post-war situation in Europe."

Wilhelm II ignored the protests of Bülow and Holstein and changed the subject directly, asking: "If Russia were to have a conflict with China and Japan in the Far East, to what extent should we support Russia?"

Faced with the autocratic Wilhelm II, Bülow could only helplessly reply: "According to our current interests in China, Russian troops should not cross the Yellow River, otherwise Shandong and Hubei will be threatened by Russia. In terms of long-term interests, Shandong, Hubei, Henan, Shaanxi, Gansu and Xinjiang should not be occupied by Russia, because these are the only places that the Sino-German railway will pass through."

After thinking for a moment, Wilhelm II asked, "So, can China really stop the Russians on its own? We can't possibly support Russia's expansion into the Far East and also support China's resistance against Russian invasion, can we?"

After a moment of contemplation, Bilo said, "If it's just the Chinese on their own, I think they'll have a hard time stopping the Russians. However, if we support the Chinese, then at least the Russians won't win so easily in China."

Compared to the Russians, my country actually has greater interests in China. At the end of last year, Chinese industrialists signed labor export agreements with China, allowing for the development of these Pacific islands. It's far more convenient to transport resources from these islands to China for processing before selling them locally or back home, rather than directly shipping them back to China for processing and then reselling them abroad.

This triangular trade will integrate China into Germany's economic sphere, ultimately making China a top destination for German industrial products. In the past two years, our exports to China rose from less than one percent of total exports to 1.5% and 2.5% respectively, and this is just the beginning; the Chinese market still has enormous potential.

Conversely, the Russians have consistently erected import barriers for German industrial goods, using the importation of German industrial goods as leverage to demand that we maintain the 1894 standards for Russian agricultural exports.

William knew immediately that Russia's demands were impossible to meet. He could support Russia's eastward expansion and mediate conflicts between Russia and the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires, but he could not allow the interests of the Junkers to be harmed.

The Russo-German Trade Treaty of 1894 benefited German industry but disadvantaged German landowners, leading to widespread resentment among the Junkers. To appease the Junkers, the German government raised tariffs twice in 1902 and 1903, restoring agricultural tariffs to 1892 levels. This naturally provoked Russian discontent, and Russia revoked its preferential treatment for German industrial goods.

With Russia facing increasingly complex trade tensions, China is indeed Germany's hope for the future, as China exports soybeans and cotton to Germany, resources that Germany lacks.

Chapter 156 Sino-German Chamber of Commerce

While the German government is considering strengthening economic ties with China, German industrialists and bankers have already begun taking action. Industrialists led by Siemens and Krupp have found that once the Hubei government itself started infrastructure development, the return on investment for German companies in Hubei immediately increased.

Although China is primarily an agricultural country, it does not lack the foundation for industrial development. This is because, in addition to being unified in form, the country also has a unified writing system, weights and measures, and currency. This means that the differences between the provinces of China are not actually greater than those between the states of Germany.

The experience gained from German reunification, primarily in economic terms, is actually applicable to China as well. Under a unified dynasty, integrating the economies of these provinces is indeed easier. What excited German industrialists and bankers was that Hubei province alone accounted for nearly half of Germany's population, and the population of the Huguang province was close to that of Germany. This meant that simply bringing the Huguang region into Germany's economic sphere could provide at least a decade of significant economic growth for Germany.

A region transitioning from an agricultural to an industrial society needs a large number of machines and industrial products, as evidenced by the development of Wuhan and Huangshi.

Between 1902 and 1903, the Germans completed most of the renovations to the Hanyang Iron and Steel Works, rebuilding the steelmaking and rolling mills to ensure continuous production. They also upgraded equipment and constructed new mining areas at the Daye Iron Mine and Pingxiang Coal Mine. This alone required an investment of 10 million taels of silver, with another 1000 million taels to be invested over the next two years. Ultimately, this enabled the Hanyang Iron and Steel Company to achieve an annual production capacity of 800 million tons of coal, 100 tons of iron ore, 15 tons of pig iron, and 60 tons of crude steel.

In 1902-1903, the Chinese also established a water and electricity company in Hankou that covered the entire city. Three 500-kilowatt DC generators could supply 18,000 electric lights, and the water plant supplied 27,000 tons of water per day, solving the water supply problem for 100,000 people. The concession also needed to obtain the water supply from this water plant.

This was just a trial run. Over the next two years, 20 2000-kilowatt AC generator units would be installed in the three towns of Wuhan and Huangshi, and waterworks would be built in all three towns, laying the foundation for an industrial city. The Chinese had decided to use electricity as the power source for urban industry, which greatly stimulated Siemens' productivity.

Of course, according to the contract with the Chinese, Siemens needed to establish a factory in Wuhan, with at least half of the machines to be produced or assembled locally. Siemens ultimately accepted the contract with the Chinese, partly because it wasn't a one-off deal; there were orders from other Chinese cities after Wuhan. Although these other cities weren't investing as heavily as Wuhan, they were also starting to explore the electric era. Through the Chinese in Wuhan, Siemens products would have priority in selection, as this seemed to satisfy the Chinese desire for self-manufacturing.

On the other hand, after Siemens, together with German industry, conducted a resource survey of the Hubei and Hunan regions in 1902-1903, they discovered that the region possessed all the industrial raw materials that Siemens needed. They even found some more suitable materials, such as tung oil and raw lacquer, which are natural and excellent insulating coatings that would greatly reduce the cost of producing wires.

Led by Siemens and Krupp, other companies with business ties to them naturally began looking for suitable factory locations in Wuhan to supply the two companies' production nearby. This resulted in Germans making up nearly 80% of Wuhan's foreign population, exceeding 2000 people.

In January 1904, in order to mediate disputes between Chinese and German businesses in the Wuhan area, the two sides decided to establish the Sino-German Chamber of Commerce to resolve various commercial issues between them.

At the reception celebrating the founding of the Sino-German Chamber of Commerce, Tatsuichiro Funatsu, who was sent to Wuhan by the Consul General in Shanghai to conduct an investigation, and Asanosuke Raikawa, the Consul in charge of domestic trade affairs in Hankou, Jiujiang, and Yuezhou, attended the conference, which was held in the newly built Hankou Park Exhibition Hall.

Designed by Germans, this exhibition hall not only utilizes optical principles for lighting and incorporates electrical equipment, but also integrates some Chinese architectural styles. The entire construction period took less than 10 months, and the finished effect is quite stunning, no less than the Western-style buildings along the riverside avenue.