area51novel Chapter 192 Twists and Turns
Chapter 192 Twists and Turns
January 22, 2021.
Su Chen opened the Nature Materials submission system as usual.
Then he saw a change that made his heart skip a beat.
The status bar no longer displays "Under Review".
Instead, it displays "Editor Decision Pending".
Su Chen's finger remained motionless on the mouse.
"Editor Decision Pending" – This status in NM's submission system has only two meanings: either the editor has received the reviewers' comments and is making a decision, or there is a problem in the review process that requires editorial intervention.
The paper was submitted less than a month ago. Even for the fastest reviewers, it would be nearly impossible to review a 68-page paper within a month.
Therefore, it is unlikely to be the first scenario.
That's the second one.
Su Chen immediately took a screenshot and sent it to Zhou Zhiyuan, adding the message: "The system status has changed."
Zhou Zhiyuan replied five minutes later—those five minutes felt like five hours to Su Chen.
"Don't panic. It's highly likely that a reviewer declined the review invitation, and the editor needs to find a replacement. This is very common in NM—a journal with a rejection rate exceeding 90%, where reviewers frequently decline reviews."
After reading the reply, Su Chen breathed a slight sigh of relief, but his heartbeat had not yet fully returned to normal.
"How long will it be delayed?" he asked.
"It depends on how quickly the editor finds new reviewers. It can take as little as a week, or two to three weeks. If two or three reviewers reject the paper in a row, it could take even longer."
Is it possible that the reviewers rejected the paper because they found our claims unbelievable after reading the abstract?
Zhou Zhiyuan didn't reply immediately. Two minutes later, he sent a long message:
"This possibility exists. Reviewers can refuse to review for many reasons—they're busy, not in the research field, or feel the claims are too broad and don't want to spend time reviewing. However, there's also the possibility that a reviewer, after a preliminary reading of the abstract, deems the paper unreliable and chooses to refuse rather than give a negative review. But this isn't necessarily a bad thing for us—it's much better if a reviewer refuses due to bias than if they review it with prejudice and give us a rejection. The editor will find a more suitable person."
After reading this passage, Su Chen sat in his chair and thought about it for a long time.
Zhou Zhiyuan is right.
A reviewer's refusal to review your paper is not the end of the world. The editor will look for another one. It's just a delay, not a rejection.
But what does this mean?
This means the April meeting point may be delayed.
If the peer review process is delayed by two to three weeks, the reviewers' comments will be released from March to the end of March or even the beginning of April. If revision is needed, further time will be required for modification and resubmission. The official publication date of the paper may be pushed back to May or even later.
Lin Wei's "April convergence point"—the simultaneous arrival of academic and product lines—may need to be adjusted.
Su Chen took out his phone and sent Lin Wei a message: "The paper review process may be delayed by one to three weeks. One reviewer declined the invitation, and the editor is looking for another."
Lin Wei replied quickly: "The product line is unaffected. Shipments at the end of February will proceed as planned. You and Zhou Zhiyuan will handle the academic line."
Just as Su Chen was about to reply, Lin Wei sent a second message:
"Our goals for April remain unchanged. If the paper is delayed, we will adjust the pace, but not the goals."
Su Chen looked at the message and nodded.
Do not adjust the target.
It's easier said than done.
This means that until the paper's results are available, Vilan must proceed with everything based on the assumption that "the paper will definitely be approved." Equipment installation, product manufacturing, alliance supply, and customer shipments—none of these can be halted due to the review delay.
This is a gamble.
A bet based on the premise that "the third-order model is correct".
Su Chen knew that this premise was correct.
But between knowing and proving, there's a process called "peer review." And this process has just encountered a minor setback.
……
The setbacks didn't only occur in the submission system.
January 23rd.
Zhao Guoping walked into Lin Wei's office, holding a call log in his hand.
"Mr. Lin, three alliance members have called in the past two days to inquire about the progress of the paper."
Which three?
"Two are standard members—Ruicheng Precision and Haina Microelectronics. The other is an observer member—Xingchen Packaging."
What did they say?
Zhao Guoping glanced at the call log: "Mr. Zhang from Ruicheng Precision asked when the paper could be published, saying their client was inquiring. Manager Li from Haina Microelectronics was more direct, asking what would happen if the paper was rejected. As for Xingchen Packaging..."
Zhao Guoping paused for a moment.
"What's going on with Starry Sky Packaging?" Lin Wei asked.
"Mr. Zhao from Xingchen Packaging hinted that if the peer review results for the paper are unsatisfactory, they may need to re-evaluate the cooperation terms."
Lin Wei's expression remained unchanged.
"Reassess the terms of the cooperation," she repeated, "What exactly did it say?"
"They didn't say anything specific, just hinted. But the meaning is clear—if the paper is rejected, they want to renegotiate the price."
Lin Wei leaned back in her chair and remained silent for a few seconds.
"What level of member is Starburst Packaging?"
"Observer member. Joined the alliance last September, signing the most basic cooperation agreement."
"Then let him reassess," Lin Wei said calmly. "The contract terms clearly state in black and white—the cooperation period for observation members is six months, with automatic renewal or termination upon expiration. If they want to withdraw, just follow the contract procedures."
What about Ruicheng Precision and Haina Microelectronics?
"Tell them the paper is in the normal peer review process and the results are expected in three to four months. That's all."
Zhao Guoping nodded and turned to leave.
"Wait a minute," Lin Wei called out to him, "Do you think these three phone calls are a coincidence, or is someone spreading some kind of message?"
Zhao Guoping thought for a moment: "It's hard to say. But recently someone posted a new thread on Zhihu saying that most of Vilan's alliance members are small and medium-sized enterprises, questioning the credibility of the data. Some members may have seen it."
"A post from Zhihu?"
"Yes. The poster is neither 'Calm Analyst' nor 'Semiconductor Veteran 2003,' but a new ID called 'MEMS Industry Observer.' The post mainly exposes the alliance's member list, claiming that the core members do not include any major manufacturers, but rather small and medium-sized enterprises, therefore the ±0.018° data for 300mm lacks independent verification."
Lin Wei's gaze darkened slightly.
When was this post made?
"Last night. There are already over four hundred comments."
"What's the prevailing opinion?"
"There are two camps. One camp thinks it makes sense—the lack of independent verification is indeed Wei Lan's current weakness. The other camp thinks the paper is still under review, and they should wait for the review results before making a decision. 'The Calm Analyst' hasn't replied yet."
Lin Wei nodded.
"I understand. You can go ahead and get back to work."
After Zhao Guoping left, Lin Wei opened Zhihu and found that post.
The post is titled: "How much real value does the Vilan Microsystem Alliance actually have? — A sobering reflection from an industry insider."
She read it from beginning to end.
The post's analysis does have some merit. Among the 29 members of the Vilan Alliance, there are indeed no top-tier manufacturers like Bosch, STMicroelectronics, or Infineon. While the eight core members have some strength in their respective niche markets, they are indeed considered small and medium-sized enterprises in the international MEMS industry.
"Lack of independent verification"—these four words are the core argument of this post.
After reading the post, Lin Wei closed Zhihu and opened her year-end review document.
In the "Risk Assessment" section, she added a line:
"Public opinion risk: Zhihu is facing a new round of criticism, with the core argument being 'lack of independent verification.' This needs attention. However, we shouldn't respond proactively—responding would make us seem guilty. Let's wait for the paper."
Then she opened a new document titled "Alliance Confidence Management - January Memo".
She wrote in it:
"Three members proactively inquired about the progress of the paper, and one of them (Star Packaging, an observer member) hinted at renegotiating the terms."
Assessment: Overall confidence within the alliance remains stable, but there is some wavering among peripheral members (under observation). The core eight teams currently show no signs of wavering.
Response: No further reassurance. A contract is a contract. If StarCraft Packaging wants to withdraw, we will not try to retain them. The core members' confidence does not need to be maintained through reassurance—they joined after seeing the data, and since the data hasn't changed, their confidence shouldn't change.
Bottom line: If any core member wavers, one-on-one communication is necessary. But that's not needed at the moment.
After finishing writing, she saved the document and shut down her computer.
The sky outside the window was gloomy; it had been raining for several days in a row in Suzhou at the end of January.
Lin Wei stood by the window, looking at the workshops in the distant factory area. The production of the first batch of 300mm sensors had begun—both of Hongyuan's new machines were already in operation, and the production lines were running at full speed.
Shipped at the end of February.
This goal cannot be changed.
Regardless of when the paper results are released, regardless of the voices on Zhihu, and regardless of who wavers in the alliance—the product line waits for no one.
……
January 24th.
The submission system has been restored.
"Under Review".
When Su Chen saw this change, he let out a long sigh of relief.
The editor found a new reviewer.
It only took two days from "Editor Decision Pending" to "Under Review". This was much faster than Zhou Zhiyuan's estimate of "one to three weeks".
Su Chen sent the screenshot to Zhou Zhiyuan.
Zhou Zhiyuan replied with three words: "Good news."
Then he added, "The fact that the new reviewers accepted the invitation shows that the editor has confidence in our paper—if the editor thought the paper was not good enough, he wouldn't bother to find reviewers; he could just desk reject it."
Su Chen's lips curled up slightly as he read those words.
Zhou Zhiyuan is right. The editor's choice to find new reviewers instead of rejecting the manuscript outright is a positive sign.
But he did not relax because of this.
The delay has already occurred. Even if a new reviewer accepts the paper, the review period will have to be recalculated from the beginning—the new reviewer will need six to eight weeks to complete the review. Adding the two weeks wasted earlier, the total review time could reach ten weeks or even longer.
This means that peer review comments may not be available until mid-March or even early April.
Time is tighter than expected.
Su Chen opened his notes on the 400mm verification plan and made a decision under "Direction Two".
He stopped waiting for the reviewers' comments.
He wants to start the 400mm edge verification experiment right now.
It wasn't because he had a premonition that the reviewers would definitely request additional experiments—although that was highly likely—but because if he waited until the reviewers' comments came out before starting, there would be too little time left for the experiments. He received the comments in mid-March, and assuming it would take two to three weeks to conduct the experiments, organize the data, and revise the paper—then the revised paper wouldn't be resubmitted until the end of April at the earliest.
too late.
However, if we start the experiment now and obtain the 400mm margin verification data before the peer review comments are released, the revision process will be much faster.
Prepare in advance, rather than waiting passively.
Su Chen took out his phone and sent a message to Zhang Li.
"Zhang Li, how's the evaluation of the 400mm edge verification experiment mentioned in the previous email going?"
Zhang Li replied half an hour later. His reply was very detailed—this is typical of Huaren Microelectronics engineers; they are meticulous in their work.
"The evaluation is complete. It is feasible to conduct experiments on a 10mm edge region on our 300mm production line. Adjustments to etching parameters and temperature control are needed. Preparation is expected to take one week, the experiment itself two weeks, and data processing and analysis another week. The total will be approximately four weeks."
All around.
If we start now, the data will be available at the earliest by the end of February, just before the reviewers' comments.
"What about the cost?" Su Chen asked.
"The production line usage fee plus material costs will be approximately 150,000 to 200,000 yuan. It requires approval from the production line manager at China Resources Microelectronics."
Can you help coordinate this?
"Sure. But you'd better have Lin Wei coordinate with our business team as well; going through the formal procedures will speed things up."
"Okay. I'll talk to Lin Wei about it today."
Su Chen put down his phone and opened the email he had sent to Lin Wei.
He wrote in the email:
Regarding the 400mm edge verification experiment:
Objective: To prepare 400mm of indirect validation data in advance, before the reviewers' comments are released. If the reviewers request additional experiments, we can respond quickly and shorten the revision cycle.
Solution: On CR Microelectronics' 300mm production line, a local thermal field control experiment was conducted on the 10mm edge region to simulate 400mm process conditions. Temperature field distribution, stress gradient, and accuracy data were collected and compared with the 400mm predictions of a third-order model.
Cycle: Four weeks. If started now, data will be available at the earliest by the end of February.
Cost: 15-20 RMB. Formal business procedures with China Resources Micro are required.
Person in charge: Zhang Li (China Resources Microelectronics) + Me.
Please approve.
Fifteen minutes later, Lin Wei replied with two words: "Approved."
Then he added, "The expenses will be covered by the R&D budget. Zhao Guoping will coordinate the business processes."
After reading the reply, Su Chen immediately messaged Zhang Li: "Lin Wei approved it. Zhao Guoping will handle the business processes. When can we start preparing?"
"Next Monday."
"good."
Su Chen put down his phone and leaned back in his chair.
He looked at the ceiling of the laboratory, and his heartbeat gradually calmed down.
The turmoil surrounding the submission system had him on edge for two days, but now he had a new goal: to prepare for all possible outcomes while waiting, instead of just waiting passively.
400mm edge verification experiment.
If the data matches the predictions of the third-order model, this is not only a bargaining chip to deal with reviewers, but also an expansion and validation of the applicability of the third-order model.
If the data is inconsistent—
Su Chen shook his head.
The data will be consistent.
The third-order model is correct.
……
January 25th.
Zhihu.
The "calm analyst" finally replied to the "MEMS industry observation" post.
His reply wasn't in the comments section, but in a separate new article titled:
Regarding 'Independent Validation' – A Reply to 'MEMS Industry Observer'
The article is short, only about two thousand words, but every paragraph is powerful.
The post on 'MEMS Industry Observer' raises a valid question: Vilan's 300mm data lacks independent verification from leading manufacturers. This issue certainly exists. However, I would like to point out a few facts:
First, Wei Lan's paper is currently under peer review by Nature Materials. NM's peer review is one of the highest standards for independent validation. Reviewers will examine all data, methods, and conclusions. If there are problems with the data, the reviewers will find them.
Second, the statement that "all alliance members are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)" is inaccurate. The core members of the alliance include China Resources Microelectronics—one of China's largest wafer foundries, whose 300mm production line data is crucial to the paper's support. China Resources Microelectronics is not a "small and medium-sized enterprise."
Third, regarding the question of 'why no major manufacturers have joined the alliance'—the answer is simple: Bosch, STMicroelectronics, and Infineon are potential competitors of Vilan. Do you expect your competitors to join your alliance?
Fourth, and most importantly, independent verification doesn't necessarily require a consortium. The global MEMS field has many independent researchers and labs. Once a paper is published, anyone can use their own data to verify the third-order model. This is true independent verification—not just consortium members saying 'we've verified it,' but anyone in the world with the data can verify it.
Therefore, the argument of 'lack of independent verification' holds true at this stage. However, it is not Wei Lan's fatal weakness—it is a common characteristic of all unpublished papers. This problem will naturally be resolved once the paper is published.
The real question is: Can you afford to wait?
After the article was published, the comment section remained divided. However, unlike before, this time there were significantly more criticisms.
"That sounds nice, but they've already formed an alliance of 29 companies before the paper has even been published. Isn't that just empty talk?"
"It's true that CR Micro provided the production line data, but what level is CR Micro in the MEMS field? How does it compare to Bosch?"
"NM's rejection rate is over 90%. I bet this paper won't pass review."
"I support calm analysts. But we really need to wait for the paper. Empty talk is meaningless."
"Waiting for the paper, waiting for the paper... when will it be ready? It's been almost two months."
……
Su Chen did not read these comments.
In the lab, he talked on the phone with Zhang Li for an hour to confirm the specific plan for the 400mm edge verification experiment.
实验将在华润微的300mm产线上进行。方案的核心思路是：300mm晶圆的边缘10mm区域，其热场分布模式和400mm晶圆的边缘区域在理论上是相似的。通过精确控制边缘区域的温度梯度，可以模拟400mm工艺条件下的热弹性耦合行为。
This is not a perfect verification scheme—it can only cover the edge region and not the global thermal field of the entire 400mm wafer. However, if the edge data matches the predictions of the third-order model, it can at least prove that the extrapolation direction of the model is correct.
"There's a technical challenge," Zhang Li said over the phone. "The temperature control precision required in the edge areas is very high—we need to control the temperature gradient within a range of ±0.3°C. Our existing equipment can barely do it, but it requires manual calibration, which is relatively inefficient."
"Low efficiency is okay," Su Chen said. "Data quality is paramount. Every set of data must have complete measurement records and error analysis."
"Understood. I will personally oversee the data collection."
"Thank you, Zhang Li."
"You're welcome." Zhang Li paused for a moment. "To be honest, I'd also like to see what the 400mm data actually looks like. Your theoretical prediction is ±0.015°—if the edge data really does point in this direction…"
He didn't finish speaking.
Su Chen smiled and said, "The data speaks for itself."
"Yes. The data speaks for itself."
After hanging up the phone, Su Chen updated the timeline in his notes:
400mm edge verification experiment
Launch date: January 27th (next Monday)
Preparation phase: January 27 - February 2 (one week)
Experimental phase: February 3 - February 17 (two weeks)
Data compiled from February 18th to February 24th (one week).
Expected completion date: February 24
Note: If all goes well, the data will be ready before the reviewers' comments are received.
He looked at the timeline and added a small line of text after "expected completion":
Even if the reviewers don't request additional experiments, this data can still serve as supplementary material for the paper. It's not a waste.
Su Chen saved the notes.
Waiting is not his style.
Since we can't speed up the review process, let's do something valuable while we wait.
……
January 26th.
A new email appeared in Su Chen's inbox.
From: Akira Ishikawa.
The email subject line contained only one word: "Data."
Su Chen opened the email. The content was very short—only three lines of English:
Dear Su Chen,
When your paper is published, I have some data that I would like to discuss with you. It may be relevant to the long-term implications of your model.
Best Regards,
Akira Ishikawa"
Su Chen read it three times.
Three lines of text. Each line was very short. But Su Chen gleaned three layers of meaning from them.
Firstly, Ishikawa Akira said "when"—"when your paper is published"—not "if". This means that Ishikawa Akira believed the paper would be accepted.
The second layer: Ishikawa Akira says he has "data"—not opinions, not comments, but data. This means that Ishikawa Akira has real experimental data, and that this data is related to the third-order model.
The third layer: Akira Ishikawa said that these data "may be relevant to the long-term implications"—related to the model's "long-term effects." It's not about manufacturing precision or process parameters, but rather the "long-term effects."
Su Chen leaned back in his chair and closed his eyes.
Long-term effects.
long.
He thought of the first item he had written in his notes on "future research directions"—"theoretical prediction of long-term performance degradation of MEMS devices".
Akira Ishikawa is a gyroscope engineer at TDK. If he has any data, it's most likely long-term performance data for gyroscopes—drift rate, aging curves, and accuracy degradation after temperature cycling.
If these data match the predictions of the third-order model...
Su Chen opened his eyes.
His heart raced—not from anxiety, but from excitement.
Akira Ishikawa may have a set of data that can prove that the third-order model is not only applicable to MEMS manufacturing, but also to the full life cycle analysis of MEMS devices.
This person is a Japanese engineer who is completely independent of the Vilan Alliance.
If his data is made public, it will be the first truly independent verification of the third-order model.
The first time in the world.
Su Chen wanted to reply to Ishikawa Akira immediately and ask for the specific details of the data. But he suppressed the impulse.
Akira Ishikawa was saying "when your paper is published"—he was waiting for his paper to be published.
Su Chen should not have disclosed more information to Ishikawa Akira before the paper was published. Academic ethics require him to maintain necessary confidentiality before the paper is officially published.
He replied with only one equally brief email:
Dear Dr. Ishikawa,
Thank you for your message. I look forward to that discussion. I believe it will be productive for both of us.
Best Regards,
Su Chen"
After sending the email, Su Chen added a sentence next to "Follow-up Research Directions - Direction 1" in his notes:
"Akira Ishikawa has confirmed that he has the relevant data. We'll discuss it after the paper is published. This could be key to the second paper."
He looked at the sentence and did some mental calculations—
The first paper is currently under review.
The 400mm edge verification experiment is about to begin.
Akira Ishikawa has independently verified data.
Three lines. Three independent validation lines. Each line points to the same conclusion—the third-order model is correct.
Reviewers will see the data in the first paper.
Su Chen will obtain the 400mm edge verification data himself.
Akira Ishikawa will use his own gyroscope data for independent verification.
Three lines. Three independent sources.
When these three lines converge, the third-order model will no longer be "a claim made by a small Chinese company".
It will become a fact.
An indisputable fact.
Su Chen shut down his computer, stood up, and walked to the window.
The rain outside the window has stopped. In Suzhou on January 26th, at dusk, a crack appeared in the clouds, and the light of the setting sun shone through, illuminating the rooftops of the factory area with a warm golden glow.
Su Chen looked at the light, a slight smile playing on his lips.
Twists and turns are just twists and turns.
The road is still there.